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학제간연구 과학기술학 뇌인지과학 기술정책 기타 복합학

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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
저널정보
한국유통과학회 산경연구논집 산경연구논집 제9권 제10호
발행연도
2018.1
수록면
83 - 89 (7page)

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Purpose – The purpose of this study examines when the optimism impact on financial asset price forecasting and the boundary condition of optimism in the financial asset price forecasting. People generally tend to optimistically forecast their future. Optimism is a nature of human beings and optimistic forecasting observed in daily life. But is it always observed in financial asset price forecasting? In this study, two factors were focused on considering whether the optimism that people have applied to predicting future performance of financial investment products (e.g., mutual fund). First, this study examined whether the degree of optimism varied depending on the direction of the prior price trend. Second, this study examined whether the degree of optimism varied according to the forecast period by dividing the future forecasted by people into three time horizon based on forecast period. Research design, data, and methodology – 2 (prior price trend: rising-up trend vs falling-down trend) x 3 (forecast time horizon: short term vs medium term vs long term) experimental design was used. Prior price trend was used between subject and forecast time horizon was used within subject design. 169 undergraduate students participated in the experiment. χ2 analysis was used. In this study, prior price trend divided into two types: rising-up trend versus falling-down trend. Forecast time horizon divided into three types: short term (after one month), medium term (after one year), and long term (after five years). Results – Optimistic price forecasting and boundary condition was found. Participants who were exposed to falling-down trend did not make optimistic predictions in the short term, but over time they tended to be more optimistic about the future in the medium term and long term. However, participants who were exposed to rising-up trend were over-optimistic in the short term, but over time, less optimistic in the medium and long term. Optimistic price forecasting was found when participants forecasted in the long term. Exposure to prior price trends (rising-up trend vs falling-down trend) was a boundary condition of optimistic price forecasting. Conclusions – The results indicated that individuals were more likely to be impacted by prior price tends in the short term time horizon, while being optimistic in the long term time horizon.

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참고문헌 (35)

참고문헌 신청
Alarcon, G. M. / 2013 / Great expectations : A meta-analytic examination of optimism and hope / Personality and Individual Differences 54(7):821~827 google schola Aspara, J. / 2013 / The role of product and brand perceptions in stock investing : Effects on investment considerations, optimism and confidence / Journal of Behavioral Finance 14(3):195~212 google schola Bendig, D. / 2018 / Share repurchases and myopia : Implications on the stock and consumer markets / Journal of Marketing 82(2):19~41 google schola Benoît, J. -P. / 2015 / Does the better-than-average effect show that people are overconfident? : Two experiments / Journal of the European Economic Association 13(2):293~329 google schola Briley, D. A. / 2017 / Cultivating optimism : How to frame your future during a health challenge / Journal of Consumer Research 44(4):895~915 google schola

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