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Purpose The economic recession of Kazakhstan coincided with its World Trade Organization (WTO) membership. Some experts claim that the membership exacerbated the recession further. This paper tries to assess whether the WTO entry hurt the economy of Kazakhstan. Design/Methodology/Approach The paper collects Kazakhstan’s tariff commitments to WTO members from the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) and WTO official websites. It then aggregates the data in terms of region and economic sectors. The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is employed to simulate the trade liberalization and the oil-price shock scenarios. Findings The economic modeling underlines that the WTO membership is not a cause for the economic recession of Kazakhstan. Instead, Kazakhstan’s GDP and welfare rose as a result of WTO entry. In contrast, the oil price plunge, as well as Kazakhstan’s involvement in Customs Union (CU), deteriorated the terms of trade and declined the economic growth. Research Implications This research is the first attempt to assess the effects of Kazakhstan’s WTO membership using the GTAP CGE model. It shows that Kazakhstan’s WTO entry was the right step toward global integration. It also signals that Kazakhstan should diversify its economy, export structure, and trade route in order not to face the next economic recession due to unexpected energy price plunge.
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참고문헌 (45)
참고문헌 신청
Abdrash, A. / Economic Opportunities and Consequences of the Accession of Kazakhstan to the WTO within the Global Economy
Abdrash, A. / Kazakhstan’s Accession to the WTO: Advantages and Disadvantages. Russian Experience:Expert Opinions. Analysis of the Current Situation
Allee, T. L. / 2012 / The Divergent Effects of Joining International Organizations : Trade Gains and the Rigors of WTO Accession / International Organization 66(2):243~276
Amirbekova, A. / 2017 / What are the Pros and Cons for Kazakhstan of Joining the WTO from an Export Potential Point of View? / Journal of Business and Retail Management Research 11(3):85~92
Amiti, M. / 2017 / How did China’s WTO Entry Benefit US consumers?
Abdrash, A. / Kazakhstan’s Accession to the WTO: Advantages and Disadvantages. Russian Experience:Expert Opinions. Analysis of the Current Situation
Allee, T. L. / 2012 / The Divergent Effects of Joining International Organizations : Trade Gains and the Rigors of WTO Accession / International Organization 66(2):243~276
Amirbekova, A. / 2017 / What are the Pros and Cons for Kazakhstan of Joining the WTO from an Export Potential Point of View? / Journal of Business and Retail Management Research 11(3):85~92
Amiti, M. / 2017 / How did China’s WTO Entry Benefit US consumers?
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