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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2015.12
- 수록면
- 419 - 448 (30page)
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Having focused on exchange rate, much of the controversy is linked to the choice of a process to represent the evolution of exchange rate, which is crucial to measure the impact of uncertainty on trade and investment decisions. It is also necessary to choose a movement that reflects as likely as possible the dynamics of the world exchange market (Postalli and Picchetti, 2006), and then its effect on trade. One way is trade integration which increases countries’ economic relationship, but it may cause trade deviation due to exchange rate uncertainty. On the other hand, trade creation effects mostly result from an economic union through eliminating exchange rate uncertainty if a common currency arrangement is implemented properly (Sabri et al., 2012).
The objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and trade integration in ASEAN+3 over the period 1995-2014. Exchange rate uncertainty is measured by Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). The GBM is a continuous-time stochastic process, which follows a Brownian motion. Accordingly, the evaluation of exchange rate uncertainty is carried out by estimating an integration trade model using panel data approach. Estimation results have indicated that the effect of the exchange rate uncertainty on trade integration in ASEAN+3 has been significant and negative. The implication is that any shock to the exchange market may be harmful to trade integration in ASEAN+3.
The objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and trade integration in ASEAN+3 over the period 1995-2014. Exchange rate uncertainty is measured by Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). The GBM is a continuous-time stochastic process, which follows a Brownian motion. Accordingly, the evaluation of exchange rate uncertainty is carried out by estimating an integration trade model using panel data approach. Estimation results have indicated that the effect of the exchange rate uncertainty on trade integration in ASEAN+3 has been significant and negative. The implication is that any shock to the exchange market may be harmful to trade integration in ASEAN+3.
목차
1. INTRODUCTION
2. TRADE AND EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY
3. ASIA FINANCIAL CRISIS: EVIDENCE FOR EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY
4. THE METHODOLOGY
5. EMPIRICAL RESULTS
6. CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
참고문헌 (52)
참고문헌 신청
[학술지(정기간행물)] - Akinlo, E. A. / 2014 / Exchange Rate Volatility and Non-oil Exports in Nigeria: 1986-2008 / International Business and Management 9 (2) : 70 ~ 79
[학술지(정기간행물)] - Aktas, A / 2015 / The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Agricultural Exports: A Study of Turkey / Business Management Dynamics 4 (8) : 1 ~ 8
[학술대회논문] - Alexander, V / / Economic Integration, Uncertainty, and Trade — The European Experience / Paper Prepared for Presentation at the 2006 ASSA Conference
[학술지(정기간행물)] - Ali S / 2006 / Convergence Criteria: Why These Are Inevitable for Monetary Union? / The World Trade Review
[보고서] - Auboin, M. / 2011 / The Relationship between Exchange Rates and International Trade: A Literature Review
[학술지(정기간행물)] - Aktas, A / 2015 / The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Agricultural Exports: A Study of Turkey / Business Management Dynamics 4 (8) : 1 ~ 8
[학술대회논문] - Alexander, V / / Economic Integration, Uncertainty, and Trade — The European Experience / Paper Prepared for Presentation at the 2006 ASSA Conference
[학술지(정기간행물)] - Ali S / 2006 / Convergence Criteria: Why These Are Inevitable for Monetary Union? / The World Trade Review
[보고서] - Auboin, M. / 2011 / The Relationship between Exchange Rates and International Trade: A Literature Review
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2016-320-002317359